Monday, October 23, 2006

Senate & House Control -Money Talks...

The writers at Barron's, the money people, are predicting the GOP hangs on to control of both the House and the Senate this November... They are making their predictions based on a state-by-state analysis of the races and the money going into them. What they didn't factor in is no matter what the polls say, Democrats are notoriously bad about actually getting to the polling locations…

"...We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three

We studied every single race -- all 435 House seats and 33 in the Senate -- and based our predictions about the outcome in almost every race on which candidate had the largest campaign war chest, a sign of superior grass-roots support. We ignore the polls. Thus, our conclusions about individual races often differ from the conventional wisdom....

Is our method reliable? It certainly has been in the past. Using it in the 2002 and 2004 congressional races, we bucked conventional wisdom and correctly predicted GOP gains both years. Look at House races back to 1972 and you'll find the candidate with the most money has won about 93% of the time. And that's closer to 98% in more recent years, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Polls can be far less reliable. Remember, they all but declared John Kerry president on Election Day 2004..." (source)

I am not disputing there are disillusioned voters that might stay him because they are frustrated with both parties (big government and not enough dead terrorists in Iraq)...but if the GOP does retain control, I am going to have so much fun reading through the left'o'sphere on November 8th.

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